Things have clarified significantly after Mamedyarov's clear win in Beijing. He and Topalov are the leaders in the clubhouse. Vasselin has clinched a birth in the Candidates tournament with his 410 points. He can't be caught and wins the Grand Prix series.
2nd place, and the other birth in the Candidates tourney, however, is still up for grabs. Mamedyarov is in the driver's seat having posted a 390 score. The only way he can be caught is if either Grischuk or Caruana can score a sole first in Paris. A two-way tie for first involving either player won't be enough, as that scores 155 points and Caruana needs 165 to tie, while Grischuk needs 160. Everyone else has been eliminated from qualification.
I'll be honest - with the time differences between Beijing and the west coast of the US, it was very hard for me to keep up with this tournament. It felt like an afterthought.
So, here's the current state of Candidates 2014 (March? Location?) qualification:
- Carlsen/Anand loser
- Topalov
- Grand Prix 2nd place
- World Cup winner
- World Cup 2nd place
- Top rated player not otherwise qualified*
- 2nd highest rated player not otherwise qualified*
- Organizer nomination
* = My understanding is to be considered for either of these spots, the player must have participated in the World Cup.
Place | Name | Rating | London | Tashkent | Zug | Thessaloniki | Beijing | Paris | Total | Min | Max |
1 | Topalov | 2752 | 140 | - | 170 | 45 | 100 | - | 410 | 410 | 410 |
2 | Mamedyarov | 2729 | 140 | 80 | 20 | - | 170 | - | 390 | 390 | 390 |
3 | Grischuk | 2763 | 90 | - | - | 85 | 140 | x | 315 | 315 | 400 |
4 | Caruana | 2773 | - | 80 | 100 | 125 | - | x | 305 | 305 | 395 |
5 | Morozevich | 2770 | x | 140 | 75 | 25 | 65 | - | 280 | 280 | 280 |
6 | Leko | 2737 | 80 | 80 | 80 | - | 100 | - | 260 | 260 | 260 |
7 | Karjakin | 2785 | - | 140 | 50 | - | 65 | x | 255 | 255 | 375 |
8 | Hao | 2726 | 70 | 140 | - | - | 30 | x | 240 | 240 | 380 |
9 | Ponomariov | 2734 | - | 50 | 100 | 85 | - | x | 235 | 235 | 355 |
10 | Dominguez | 2725 | 35 | 20 | - | 170 | - | x | 225 | 225 | 375 |
11 | Nakamura | 2778 | 15 | - | 140 | 60 | - | x | 215 | 215 | 370 |
12 | Kamsky | 2746 | x | 10 | 75 | 125 | 10 | - | 210 | 210 | 210 |
13 | Gelfand | 2738 | 140 | 30 | - | - | 30 | x | 200 | 200 | 340 |
14 | Kasimdzhanov | 2684 | 35 | 80 | 20 | 70 | - | - | 185 | 185 | 185 |
15 | Giri | 2711 | 15 | - | 50 | - | 65 | x | 130 | 130 | 285 |
16 | Svidler | 2749 | - | 50 | - | 45 | - | x | 95 | 105 | 265 |
16 | Ivanchuk | 2769 | 55 | - | - | 10 | 30 | x | 95 | 95 | 255 |
18 | Yue | - | - | - | - | 65 | - | 65 | 65 | 235 | |
19 | Adams | 2722 | 55 | - | - | - | - | - | 55 | 55 | 55 |
20 | Bacrot | 2788 | - | - | - | 25 | - | - | 25 | 25 | 25 |
21 | Radjabov | 2788 | - | - | 20 | - | - | x | 20 | 40 | 510 |
Notes:
- Adams substituted for Svidler in London, and is unlikely to play for the remainder of the Grand Prix.
- Yue substituted for Radjabov in Beijing. Unclear if Radjabov will play in Paris.
- Ratings are from the December, 2012 list right before London.
- '-' means the player either didn't play, or isn't scheduled to play, in that event.
- 'x' means the player is scheduled to play in that event.
- Min score is what that player would have if they finished solely in last place in all remaining GPs.
- Max score is what that player would have if they finished solely in first place in all remaining GPs.